Abstract

• In tennis, mental skill is just as important than physical ability.

• This project explores how elite players handle pressure situations (i.e., important points) to gain an edge over their opponents.

• Shot placement data - with precise ball coordinates - from the French Open (the most prestigious clay court tournament) was used.

• Key findings:

  • On serve, elite players tend to stick to their strengths and even play more aggressively under pressure (depending on their opponent).

  • On return, elite players generally adopt a more conservative approach to their current strategy.

Data

• Trajectory data before transformation:

  [{"x": -11.3, "y":  1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "hit"}, 
   {"x": -11.3, "y":  1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "peak"}, 
   {"x": -0.283, "y": -2.827, "z": 0.033, "position": "bounce"}, 
   {"x": -1.367, "y": -4.261, "z": 0.058, "position": "last"}]

• Trajectory data after transformation:

• Data preview of the most relevant variables (using Roger Federer’s 2021 R32 match against Dominik Koepfer):

Summary Stats

Case 1 - Rafael Nadal Serve Locations

Figure 1: Blue dots → serve locations on break points; grey dots → serve locations on non break points. Dots above the dashed line → Deuce side serves; dots below the dashed line → Ad side serves

• Nadal’s primarily targets his opponent’s backhand.

• When facing a break point, Nadal generally follows the same serving strategy, with more margin for error (further from the lines).

• Against strong returners, Nadal’s serve locations are less predictable.

Case 2 - Iga Swiatek Serve Locations

Figure 2: Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.

• Swiatek’s primary strategy is serving to the middle of the service box

• On important points - points that greatly impact the state of the match - she implements the same strategy with more aggressive serves.

Case 3 - Novak Djokovic Return Locations

Figure 3: Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.

• Djokovic’s targets most of his returns at his opponent’s backhand with a consistent return depth - this sets him apart from his competitors.

• Djokovic is the best in the world at locking in pressure situations: on important points, he missed just 2 returns throughout the entire 2021 tournament.

Key Takeaways

• Players adapt differently under pressure:

  • On serve, Nadal and Swiatek often maintain their strategy but add margin for error on important points.

  • On return, Djokovic prioritizes consistency in high-stakes moments.

• Only ~14% of all points are labeled as important, but they have a disproportionately large impact on match outcomes.

• Shot placement data allows us to visualize elite players’ serve and return patterns in response to pressure, enabling more nuanced performance analysis.

References