In tennis, mental skill is just as important than physical ability.
This project explores how elite players handle pressure situations (i.e., important points) to gain an edge over their opponents.
Shot placement data - with precise ball coordinates - from the French Open (the most prestigious clay court tournament) was used.
Key findings:
On serve, elite players tend to stick to their strengths and even play more aggressively under pressure (depending on their opponent).
On return, elite players generally adopt a more conservative approach to their current strategy.
[{"x": -11.3, "y": 1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "hit"},
{"x": -11.3, "y": 1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "peak"},
{"x": -0.283, "y": -2.827, "z": 0.033, "position": "bounce"},
{"x": -1.367, "y": -4.261, "z": 0.058, "position": "last"}]
| Position | x | y | z |
|---|---|---|---|
| hit | -11.300 | 1.100 | 2.607 |
| peak | -11.300 | 1.100 | 2.607 |
| bounce | -0.283 | -2.827 | 0.033 |
| last | -1.367 | -4.261 | 0.058 |
| player1 | player2 | game_score | set_score | match_score | atp_importance | atp_is_important | breakPoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 15-15 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 0.0712242 | FALSE | FALSE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 30-15 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 0.0493091 | FALSE | FALSE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 30-30 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 0.1043578 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 30-30 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 0.1043578 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 40-30 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 0.0561927 | FALSE | TRUE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 40-40 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 0.1043578 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 30-40 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 0.1938073 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 0-0 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 0.1530140 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Total Matches | Total Points | Total Important Points | Percent Important | Total Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 45672 | 6205 | 13.6% | 185702 |
Figure 1: Blue dots → serve locations on break points; grey dots → serve locations on non break points. Dots above the dashed line → Deuce side serves; dots below the dashed line → Ad side serves
Nadal’s primarily targets his opponent’s backhand.
When facing a break point, Nadal generally follows the same serving strategy, with more margin for error (further from the lines).
Against strong returners, Nadal’s serve locations are less predictable.
Figure 2: Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.
Swiatek’s primary strategy is serving to the middle of the service box
On important points - points that greatly impact the state of the match - she implements the same strategy with more aggressive serves.
Figure 3: Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.
Djokovic’s targets most of his returns at his opponent’s backhand with a consistent return depth - this sets him apart from his competitors.
Djokovic is the best in the world at locking in pressure situations: on important points, he missed just 2 returns throughout the entire 2021 tournament.
| Important Point | Returns Hit | Returns Made | Percent Returns in Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| FALSE | 527 | 461 | 87.5% |
| TRUE | 38 | 36 | 94.7% |
Players adapt differently under pressure:
On serve, Nadal and Swiatek often maintain their strategy but add margin for error on important points.
On return, Djokovic prioritizes consistency in high-stakes moments.
Only ~14% of all points are labeled as important, but they have a disproportionately large impact on match outcomes.
Shot placement data allows us to visualize elite players’ serve and return patterns in response to pressure, enabling more nuanced performance analysis.