Pressure Point Patterns: A Look Into Tennis Tactics at the French Open

Brody Pinto


St. Lawrence University
Department of Math, Computer Science, Statistics, and Data Science
Advised by Dr. Matt Higham

Abstract

  • In tennis, mental skill is just as important than physical ability.

  • This project explores how elite players handle pressure situations (i.e., important points) to gain an edge over their opponents.

  • Shot placement data - with precise ball coordinates - from the French Open (the most prestigious clay court tournament) was used.

  • Key findings:

    • On serve, elite players tend to stick to their strengths and even play more aggressively under pressure (depending on their opponent).

    • On return, elite players generally adopt a more conservative approach to their current strategy.

Data

  • Trajectory data before transformation:
  [{"x": -11.3, "y":  1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "hit"}, 
   {"x": -11.3, "y":  1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "peak"}, 
   {"x": -0.283, "y": -2.827, "z": 0.033, "position": "bounce"}, 
   {"x": -1.367, "y": -4.261, "z": 0.058, "position": "last"}]
  • Trajectory data after transformation:
Position x y z
hit -11.300 1.100 2.607
peak -11.300 1.100 2.607
bounce -0.283 -2.827 0.033
last -1.367 -4.261 0.058
  • Data preview of the most relevant variables (using Roger Federer’s 2021 R32 match against Dominik Koepfer):
player1 player2 game_score set_score match_score atp_importance atp_is_important breakPoint
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 15-15 6-5 1-1 0.0712242 FALSE FALSE
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 30-15 6-5 1-1 0.0493091 FALSE FALSE
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 30-30 6-5 1-1 0.1043578 TRUE FALSE
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 30-30 6-5 1-1 0.1043578 TRUE FALSE
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 40-30 6-5 1-1 0.0561927 FALSE TRUE
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 40-40 6-5 1-1 0.1043578 TRUE FALSE
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 30-40 6-5 1-1 0.1938073 TRUE FALSE
Roger Federer Dominik Koepfer 0-0 6-6 1-1 0.1530140 TRUE FALSE

Summary Stats

Total Matches Total Points Total Important Points Percent Important Total Shots
180 45672 6205 13.6% 185702

Case 1 - Rafael Nadal Serve Locations

Blue dots → serve locations on break points; grey dots → serve locations on non break points. Dots above the dashed line → Deuce side serves; dots below the dashed line → Ad side serves

Figure 1: Blue dots → serve locations on break points; grey dots → serve locations on non break points. Dots above the dashed line → Deuce side serves; dots below the dashed line → Ad side serves

  • Nadal’s primarily targets his opponent’s backhand.

  • When facing a break point, Nadal generally follows the same serving strategy, with more margin for error (further from the lines).

  • Against strong returners, Nadal’s serve locations are less predictable.

Case 2 - Iga Swiatek Serve Locations

Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.

Figure 2: Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.

  • Swiatek’s primary strategy is serving to the middle of the service box

  • On important points - points that greatly impact the state of the match - she implements the same strategy with more aggressive serves.

Case 3 - Novak Djokovic Return Locations

Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.

Figure 3: Blue dots → serve locations on important points, grey dots → serve locations on non-important points.

  • Djokovic’s targets most of his returns at his opponent’s backhand with a consistent return depth - this sets him apart from his competitors.

  • Djokovic is the best in the world at locking in pressure situations: on important points, he missed just 2 returns throughout the entire 2021 tournament.

Important Point Returns Hit Returns Made Percent Returns in Play
FALSE 527 461 87.5%
TRUE 38 36 94.7%

Key Takeaways

  • Players adapt differently under pressure:

    • On serve, Nadal and Swiatek often maintain their strategy but add margin for error on important points.

    • On return, Djokovic prioritizes consistency in high-stakes moments.

  • Only ~14% of all points are labeled as important, but they have a disproportionately large impact on match outcomes.

  • Shot placement data allows us to visualize elite players’ serve and return patterns in response to pressure, enabling more nuanced performance analysis.

References

TODO: what should I include here?